Cincinnati Reds: Stealth Contenders?
Baseball Prospectus recently released its Team Depth Charts, and you might be surprised to see which team PECOTA has right on the heels of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. The Red Birds coasted to a division title last season, tallying 91 wins with a +90 run differential. However, that 2009 club benefitted from Chris Carpenter's first healthy campaign since 2006, as well as a shockingly productive season from the since-departed Joel Pineiro. In 2010, PECOTA has the Cardinals, as currently constructed, winning 84 ball games with a +27 run differential. Lacking a powerhouse team, the NL Central appears ...
Not Your Father’s Twins
From 2001-09 with an average payroll of only $54 million, the Minnesota Twins somehow managed to win 88 games per season on average. In those nine seasons, they earned a post-season berth on five different occasions. The Florida Marlins and Oakland Athletics are the prototypical examples of teams that achieved a lot with very little, but certainly the Twins of the 2000's are part of that conversation as well. In 2006, the Twins won 96 games despite Lew Ford's 57 OPS+ in left field and Rondell White's 66 OPS+ as a designated hitter. In 2008, following the off-season trade of pitching ...
In Praise of Bill Smith
After Game 163, I went on Marty Andrade’s podcast and said what I’d been thinking for a long time: We’ve judged Bill Smith too quickly. His first winter on the job, he was essentially handed something of a crisis in the making. Torii Hunter was asking for an unholy sum of money and Johan Santana was already out the door. The Garza-for-Young swap was an unnecessary move, and one that hasn’t turned out well, but if we judged all GMs by their worst moments, the pantheon of good GMs would be very small indeed. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, you’d ...
Who Still Needs a Job?
For hardcore baseball fans, the off-season moves at a glacial pace. But mercifully, pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks. Spring training is closing in, but there are still a number of players out there looking for employment. In late January, I took a look at what major league clubs are dishing out for a Win Above Replacement on the free agent market. While relievers seem to be getting an inordinate amount of cash for their contributions, position players and starters inking one-year deals are signing for $3.2-3.3 million per WAR. Since that article ran, a few notable free agents have found ...
The FIP Factor vs. The Sophomore Jinx
Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) is used by many in the world of Sabermetrics to point toward a pitcher due for a turnaround or ready to crash and burn. Last year more than any other in recent memory has an interesting group of FIP flaunts thanks to a trio of talented rookies (and David Hernandez) who all grossly outperformed their FIP in '09. Of the pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched, here are the Bottom 10 of '09 ranked by ERA-FIP: There they are! J.A. Happ, Randy Wells and Rick Porcello, already laughing in the face of FIP in their rookie ...
Cincinnati Reds: Stealth Contenders?
Baseball Prospectus recently released its Team Depth Charts, and you might be surprised to see which team PECOTA has right on the heels of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. The Red Birds coasted to a division title last season, tallying 91 wins with a +90 run differential. However, that 2009 club benefitted from Chris Carpenter’s first healthy campaign since 2006, as well... [Read more]
Mocking My Draft – USA Today Magazine
by Rob McQuown
Last December 3, I was invited to participate in an “Expert Mock Draft” with 11 other fantasy baseball experts. Well, it’s hit the stands and you can read USA Today’s discussion of that magazine here. The participants included: Mock draft Rob McQuown, Baseball Prospectus Tom Kephart, BaseballHQ.com Tim Heaney, KFFL.com Ryan Hallam, Fighting chance Fantasy Mike Podhorzer, FantasyPros911.com Doug... [Read more]
Not Your Father’s Twins
by Bill Baer
From 2001-09 with an average payroll of only $54 million, the Minnesota Twins somehow managed to win 88 games per season on average. In those nine seasons, they earned a post-season berth on five different occasions. The Florida Marlins and Oakland Athletics are the prototypical examples of teams that achieved a lot with very little, but certainly the Twins of the 2000’s are part of that conversation... [Read more]
MLB On Board With ‘Supplement Safety Now’
by David Wade
Major League Baseball is one of several athletic organizations that are supporting a group that is urging Congress to enact tighter controls over the 20 billion dollar supplement industry. Supplement Safety Now ”was founded by the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, with support from Major League Baseball, the National Football League, the U.S. Olympic Committee, the National Basketball Association... [Read more]
In Praise of Bill Smith
by Dan Wade
After Game 163, I went on Marty Andrade’s podcast and said what I’d been thinking for a long time: We’ve judged Bill Smith too quickly. His first winter on the job, he was essentially handed something of a crisis in the making. Torii Hunter was asking for an unholy sum of money and Johan Santana was already out the door. The Garza-for-Young swap was an unnecessary move, and one that hasn’t... [Read more]
The Value of Everth Cabrera
by Jeff Creps
After trading fan favorite Khalil Greene following the 2008 season, the Padres backed themselves in to a tough corner. Since 2003, Greene had been one of the few constants in the Padres lineup, putting together solid, yet never spectacular, years. Outside of an uncharacteristic statistical jump in 2007 – see 12 homeruns over career average – Greene would consistently put together 15 homeruns,... [Read more]
Who Still Needs a Job?
For hardcore baseball fans, the off-season moves at a glacial pace. But mercifully, pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks. Spring training is closing in, but there are still a number of players out there looking for employment. In late January, I took a look at what major league clubs are dishing out for a Win Above Replacement on the free agent market. While relievers seem to be getting... [Read more]
MLB Should Ban Alcohol (and Tobacco)
by Bill Baer
Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com recently suggested that alcohol should be banned in all Major League clubhouses. I realize I’m a bit late in reacting to the suggestion and I’m sure the blogosphere has covered it in depth already. Still, you haven’t heard what ol’ important me has to say about it. It’s pretty simple really. Alcohol should be banned because the prohibition would... [Read more]
Top Prospects Compilation: Update #14 (February 3, 2010)
by Joe Hamrahi
Just as I have done the past few years, I have uploaded and attached the new Top Prospects Compilation file to this blog posting. Prospect rankings from Baseball America, BP’s Kevin Goldstein, and MiLB.com are just some of those that you’ll find in the file. The Excel workbook contains several tabs at the bottom representing each of the league’s divisions as well as a tab for top 100 lists and... [Read more]
The FIP Factor vs. The Sophomore Jinx
by Brian Joseph
Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) is used by many in the world of Sabermetrics to point toward a pitcher due for a turnaround or ready to crash and burn. Last year more than any other in recent memory has an interesting group of FIP flaunts thanks to a trio of talented rookies (and David Hernandez) who all grossly outperformed their FIP in ‘09. Of the pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched,... [Read more]
