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By Craig Brown
From 2004 to 2006, Travis Hafner was one of the most feared hitters in the game. Over those three seasons, he averaged a home run every 13.8 at bats while hitting .308/.419/.611. But since the beginning of 2007, Hafner has seen his power (along with most of his other numbers) slide to a home run every 24.4 at bats to go along with a line that reads more like a middle infielder than cleanup hitter - .256/.371/.432.
Through his first 31 games of 2008, Hafner has struggled mightily. He’s hitting just .209/.301/.339 with three home runs and six doubles. What gives? The On Base ProblemIn the past, Hafner has been a Three True Outcomes kind on guy, meaning that in a large percentage of his plate appearances he either strikes out, walks or hits a home run. Going back to 2004, here are his TTO percentages: 2004: 35.9% 2005: 40.7% 2006: 44.9% 2007: 36.5% 2008: 36.8% If you plotted out those percentages on a graph, you’d have a perfect bell curve peaking with his career year in ’06. Why the extreme fluctuation? Well, for starters his walk rate follows the same pattern:
2004: 12.4%
2005: 14.0%
2006: 18.1%
2007: 15.8%
2008: 10.9%
He set a career high in walks in 2007, but saw his rate drop by almost 2.5% because he also set a career high in plate appearances. Why the fall in 2007? Hafner began the year strong, hitting .338/.471/.550 with five home runs in April. He scored three runs and hit a solo home run on May 1 against the Blue Jays, but then he went into a tailspin. From May 3 to the end of June, Hafner hit .220/.360/.390.
So major league managers did what they are paid to do - they adjusted. In the 84 games before the All Star Break, Hafner walked 65 times which included 12 intentional passes. But once it became apparent that he was showing no signs of breaking out of his extended slump, teams began to pitch to Hafner more aggressively. In the 68 games after the break, Hafner drew only 37 walks and just five of those were intentional.
It may seem simplistic. But that’s why teams use advance scouts. If Hafner isn’t catching up to pitches or making solid contact over an extended period of time, why pitch to him as though he’s capable of a .300 average and 40 home runs? A simple adjustment from the opposition gave Hafner more pitches in the strike zone meaning fewer walks. The rates bear this out. Over the first half of ’07 his walk rate was at 17.3% which was right about where we would expect for Hafner. But in the second half, his rate was 12.9%. There’s other data we can use as well. In 2006, pitchers threw a strike (meaning in the accepted strike zone) to Hafner 45.9% of the time. This year, they’re throwing strikes 50.4% of the time. Pitchers don’t fear Hafner anymore, so they’re more likely to challenge him. The Power ProblemHafner belted 75 extra base hits in 2005 (42 doubles, 33 home runs) and 74 the following year. (31 doubles, 42 home runs and a triple thrown in for good measure.) But last season he managed only 51 extra base hits (25 doubles, 2 triples and 24 home runs.) Hafner has never been an extreme fly ball hitter, but that’s OK. Most of the prolific power hitters (David Ortiz, Gary Sheffield in his prime and Carlos Pena last season) hit fly balls anywhere between 40%-45% of the time. Here’s Hafner’s fly ball rates over the last five seasons: 2004: 43.0% 2005: 36.8% 2006: 40.3% 2007: 34.7% 2008: 35.3% There’s really nothing out of the ordinary from these rates. For most players, they will move from season to season and a five percentage point change isn’t going to raise any red flags. But what about a player who is hitting fewer fly balls while seeing an even larger drop in home run rate? Here are his HR/FB rates over the last five years: 2004: 17.3% 2005: 24.4% 2006: 30.2% 2007: 15.9% 2008: 10.0% Wow. There’s that pesky bell curve again. Not only is Hafner hitting fewer fly balls, he’s home run frequency is in a tailspin. It would be one thing if his power numbers were down, while his HR/FB rate was static. We could chalk that kind of drop in power as temporary; where as soon as he made the proper adjustment in his swing to generate loft, he’d be back rounding the bases with regularity in no time. But the drop in home run rate sets off all kinds of alarm bells. Not only is Hafner not generating the necessary loft on a consistent basis, he’s not driving the ball either. No wonder his home runs are way down from his peak. The Contact ProblemThe title of this section is misleading, because Hafner doesn’t have a contact problem. But it’s a roundabout way of saying his lack of a contact problem is a symptom of the greater problem. Get it? Going back to 2005, Hafner makes contact roughly 75% of the time he swings the bat. Major league average is about 80%, but as we said earlier, Hafner is the classic big swinger who (in the past at least) piles up strikeouts and home runs. But over the last three seasons, he’s actually improved his contact rate to the point where it’s currently at 76.3% on the year. And he’s making better contact. His line drive rate is 23.5%, which is the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, his line drives aren’t falling for hits. Maybe it’s the shift many teams put on him when he’s at bat. Maybe it’s because of the cold weather. It’s open for debate. But what you can’t debate is his .263 average on balls in play is freakishly low. It would seem as though he’s been the victim of some bad luck. If he gets a few more of those line drives to fall for hits, his average won’t look so anemic and his OBP will rise as well. But there’s one fact that is undeniable: While he’s getting more pitches to hit and he’s making more contact, he’s no longer hitting for power. ConclusionWhen Hafner was struggling last year, there was some rumblings that he was distracted because of his contract situation. (He was eligible for free agency following the 2008 season, but he began talking to the Indians about an extension after 2006.) He ultimately signed a four-year, $57 million deal that keeps him in Cleveland through the 2012 season. The conventional wisdom at the time was, with the contract issue out of the way, Hafner would find his stroke. Obviously, it hasn’t happened. With the evidence presented here, I’m beginning to doubt it ever will. Most of the information for this article can be found at Fangraphs - an excellent resource.
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