This time of spring training is always a wonder, with all sorts of names appearing in box scores. Some, even I have to look up, regardless of how many minor-leaguers I know about. But in these days of the $19-Million-Dollar Scott Linebrink, there are some pitchers which teams really need to give some reps in spring to see what they can do against MLB hitters. And there are other pitchers who should be showing up. Below, I've identified my “Dirty Dozen” who I'd look at first, if I was a GM needing an arm (and which GM doesn't?)
But, before I get started on the “hidden relief pitchers”, I'd be remiss if I didn't thank Rob Neyer for mentioning last week's article on “Pitching and Defense” at ESPN.com Insider. It's a reminder of my time at STATS, Inc. Neyer has always seemed like sort of a “rock star”, being on the vanguard of alternative sports media as he has. And it was nice to see my name on ESPN.com for the first time. Thanks, Rob, and it's been good to read your work over the years.
Anyway, I've had an “MLP” (Minor League Projection”) system for many years, starting back in the early STATS days when they served only to help myself and Steve Moyer win our respective roto leagues. And, while it's still as brutally inconsistent at projecting good pitching performances as any other system, sometimes different names percolate to the top. And sometimes these names belong to older pitchers who have been buried in their systems despite minor-league success. Joe Hamrahi is planning to put my MLP ratings on the site for downloading this year, but I haven't gotten the accurate minor-league park factors from 2007 yet. [ed - If anyone has these, feel free to drop me a note!]
Obviously, many of these guys wouldn't be able to do much in the majors. But how often do we see multi-million-dollar relievers doing “not much” in the majors, either? Here are some guys who were 26 or older in 2007, and – in my ideal world – should have earned themselves a spring invite, with a fairly long leash:
- Edwar Ramirez (NYA, 2008 seasonal age: 27) – Kudos to the Yankees on this guy, and giving him a chance in 2007. He's probably not really “hidden”, since he played for Torre last year, but doing poorly on a big stage can get a guy labeled as a failure very quickly. There's no “system” which could make his minor-league numbers translate poorly to MLB. Is being released by the Angels a prerequisite to being a good reliever these days?
- Winston Abreu (FA, 31) – One could argue convincingly that the 2007 Nats were one long “spring training”. Abreu was given a shot, and in return he gave up a lot of shots (7 HR in 30.1 IP). But, striking hitters out, walking hitters, and allowing fly balls are things a pitcher has a lot of control over. When combined into a single number, xFIP (thanks to The Hardball Times), Abreu's peripherals indicated a 4.82 ERA pitcher in 2007. Considering the NL league-wide ERA of 4.44, that's a lot better than the 5.93 he actually posted. Considering he's posted a fine 1.26 WHIP in a dozen minor-league seasons, would cost nearly the minimum, and could out-pitch the 10th-12th pitchers on many teams, he should be in a major-league camp this year... but he's not.
- Grant Balfour (TB, 30) – Taking into account first and last names, he wins the “Worst Name For a Pitcher, Ever” award. And his crappy 5.44 career ERA is certainly nothing good. His 2007 was responsible for many of those earned runs, as his previous two MLB trials resulted in low-4's ERA's. Balfour may or may not be able to start again, but he's struck out 104 hitters in 92.2 career MLB innings, and has a career K:BB ratio in the minors of about 3:1. His arm seems to be fine for now (he's had multiple serious injuries in the past), and the Rays got him for 2008 for the almost-minimal price of $500,000.
- Jason Bulger (LAA, 29) – Bulger may have improved his standing within the Angels organization in 2007 with a few good innings in September. He has a strange story, going from surprise first-round pick as a college infielder/closer, to starting for a couple years in the D-Backs system, to being traded to the Angels for Alberto Callaspo, to being granted free agency by the Angels (of course). He was retained by the team, and despite his walks looks like he might be able to get the job done in the late innings, given a chance. His a traditional, large-body, flamethrower who also keeps the ball in the park. If he improves his control just a little, his name will become common knowledge.
- Joe Thatcher (SD, 26) – Doesn't really fit the 26+ (in 2007) criteria, but there's a certain irony that he was traded WITH a highly-regarded SP prospect (Will Inman) for Scott Linebrink, and seems very likely to out-pitch Linebrink from the day of the trade going forward. To Milwaukee's credit, at least they took the nice compensation picks for losing Linebrink instead of matching the ridiculous offer.
- Chris Booker (FA, 31) – Minor-league closer Chris Booker probably had his last chance last year, and wasn't able to earn a roster spot in Washington. He's never had enough control to close (or even set up) in the majors, but guys who can miss bats and prevent hits and homers can help a team win. There are many situations where a walk isn't very useful to the opposing team, and good managers are able to leverage their guys with less control for those situations.
- Scott Patterson (NYA, 29) – Oh, those cagey Yankees and their scouting of the Independent leagues! Critics will certainly point out that – at 28 – he should have been dominating in AA, but was he ever! There are enough good hitters in AA to make 92/15/1 (K/BB/HR) and only 45 hits allowed in 77.1 IP a feat worthy of note for any hurler. That was his combined line between AA/AAA, and 3 of those games were starts. Given the lack of available data on Patterson, it's unclear what his upside is, but he is certainly deserving of competing for a major-league job.
- Brian Falkenborg (LA, 30) – Released by the Cardinals after the 2007 season, the Dodgers have invited him to camp. It seems strange that a team as unsettled as the Cards would let a guy with a 4.82 ERA go, and everything in his history indicates that he's able to pitch at that level or better in 2008. Not a guy you'd want pitching high-leverage innings, but a very useful bullpen arm.
- Scott Dohmann (TB, 30) – Has been very good in the minors, whether starting or relieving, was good in 2007 for TB and in 2004 for Colorado. His 2005-2006 struggles look very much like a guy pitching through injuries in Colorado would look. He was a victim of Dayton Moore's “housecleaning” when he arrived in KC, and was granted free agency post-season 2006, after coming over from Colorado in the Ryan Shealy deal. Yet another shrewd pickup a month later by the Rays, though they have little to lose. He doesn't have the pure “stuff” teams look for at the end of a bullpen, but could end up being okay in a setup role, or even as a swingman if he can handle starting again.
- Jordan De Jong (Toronto?, 29) – Hasn't been any news on De Jong this spring, but he's not pitching yet in any camps. His career has been in reverse for a while, going from minor-league closer to minor-league setup to minor-league mopup to a brief stint on the Toronto bench last year. It's s strange progression for a guy whose stats indicate an average MLB pitcher.
- Stephen Randolph (FA, 34) – This must be a joke, right? Well, yeah. He's a good example of taking a longer view on a player. In 2007, he came up with the best control he'd ever shown in AAA. Considering the fact that he seemed to immediately lose his grasp on the strike zone upon promotion, not to mention the Radomski allegations, there should be other options. Of course, he does throw lefty, so he'll get another chance somewhere in all likelihood.
- Chad Orvella (TB, 27) - A lot of guys labeled “Closer of the Future” fail to live up to that. In fact, most probably do. But Orvella's just destroyed minor-league hitters. He's an extreme oddity in that he's allowed walks almost 3 times as often in the majors as in the minors. He only has 284.1 pro innings so far, so don't write him off. He throws hard, and if he overcomes whatever is causing his wildness in the bigs, expect good things.
Those are my Dirty Dozen “hidden” relievers. While writing, I was able to watch Edwar Ramirez struggle with his wildness and get beat around by the Twins. And that's a reminder that this is far from an exact science. But I firmly believe that almost any team could improve 2 spots in their bullpen by inviting 4 of the above guys to spring training (trading something for them if required, as the White Sox did for Thornton a couple years ago).
There are dozens more who are almost as good as these guys. All of the above had 2007 seasons which were far better than an average major-league pitcher would have done at the same level, and most have shown the potential to be above-average MLB relievers, given a full chance. The problem here is that these guys usually fall into one of two camps: 1) Good stuff, but unable to throw strikes, or 2) Not-quite-good-enough stuff. I used Scott Linebrink's contract as the lead-in for this because he's not known for having great “stuff”, either. Further, hitters have hit .244/.315/.386 against him in his career. That's pretty good, but it's far from the top pitchers. I don't think that it's likely a team could pick up a Dirty Dozen guy and expect the same performance as Scott Linebrink. But they could get pretty close. And, considering the team would be able to save many millions of dollars to spend on front-line talent elsewhere, it's a no-brainer.
I'll close with one quick list. Here's a list of the relievers who prevented the most runs in 2007, per BP's “ARP” stat:
Heath Bell Rafael Betancourt J.J. Putz Carlos Marmol Peter Moylan Matt Guerrier Joakim Soria Joe Nathan Takashi Saito Rafael Perez Lee Gardner Jonathan Papelbon Hideki Okajima Pat Neshek Jeremy Accardo Saul Rivera Justin Speier Russ Springer Chad Qualls Mariano Rivera Tony Pena Manuel Corpas Casey Janssen Brandon Lyon J.C. Romero Jason Isringhausen Matt Capps George Sherrill Ryan Franklin Jonathan Broxton
Obviously, some of these guys are consistently good relievers (Joe Nathan). Others are up-and-coming fireballers who any team would want (Broxton). But consider how many of these guys were regarded as marginal prospects, or even non-prospects a year ago. And consider how many seemingly came “out of nowhere”. George Sherrill is an Independent League success story, Peter Moylan, Saul Rivera, Lee Gardner are all older for players having their first good season, Marmol wasn't considered to be much this time last year. Okajima, as everyone knows, was supposedly brought over from Japan just to help Dice-K out.
There are going to be surprising names on the top relievers list next year, too. If you're trying to predict who they might be, don't forget the guys who've toiled in the minors without fanfare. Most of the Dirty Dozen won't make it, but the ones who do might be better than you'd think.
Questions and comments for this article may be submitted to Rob McQuown at
. Past articles for this author can be found under “Staff Writers” at the Baseball Digest Daily site.
