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By Jonathan Hale
Detailed Pitch Analysis: Part I – The Rising Fastball
There have been a couple of excellent articles recently looking at hitter’s results against different types of pitches. First John Walsh provided a boatload of information on pitch types, and then Joe Sheehan went into depth on the effect of how high they are in the zone. In this article I want to take a similar approach, but look at both inside and outside pitches as well. How much of a difference is there in what do with a pitch placed low and away and one that is up and in on the hands?
In order to do this, we need to split up the hitter/pitcher matchups, because an inside curveball from a lefty is a the total opposite of one thrown from a right-handed pitcher. It would probably be safe to assume that lefty-lefty matchups are similar to righty-righty (and of course like-handed matchups favour the pitcher and vice-versa), but we since we’re already splitting them up, we may as well look at the differences between types of hitters as well. The results are longer than the average attention span so I’m going to look at each pitch separately over the next few weeks.
To start, lets take the most basic pitch there is, the four-seam, or “straight” fastball. Conventional wisdom is that pitchers should throw their hard inside (“under the hands”), and that up and in is especially difficult pitch to get around on. As for hitters, righties are supposed to be high-ball hitters when compared to left-handed hitters who like that ball low and away (since the natural movement of a pitch from a right-handed pitcher to a left-handed hitter is down and away).
To classify a rising fastball, I’ve used the quick and dirty method of calling any pitch that rises 6 inches when compared to a pitch without any spin (which is the reference point the system uses). It’s not a perfect definition (and there is plenty of grey area between different kinds of fastballs) but works fine for this purpose. Each 3x3 grid that follows represents the hitter’s strike zone divided into 9 equal parts as seen from the catcher’s perspective.
1) FASTBALL OUTCOMES
First, let’s look at what happens to these pitches: are they called balls (B), called strikes (CS), swinging strikes (SS), fouled off (FB), or put in play (BIP). Because I’m looking only at pitches than were within the rulebook strike zone, by definition the percentage of balls should be very low.
Right-handed Hitter vs. Left Handed Pitcher
B: 7.1 CS: 18.5 SS: 7.9 FB: 32.6 BIP: 32.8
| B: 5.5 CS: 19.6 SS: 11.3 FB: 34.2 BIP: 27.6 | B: 12.6 CS: 25.9 SS: 9.7 FB: 25.3 BIP: 25.6 | B: 3.5 CS: 29.5 SS: 5.5 FB: 25.6 BIP: 35.4
| B: 1.7 CS: 28.2 SS: 7.5 FB: 26.8 BIP: 34.3 | B: 2.7 CS: 32.7 SS: 8.0 FB: 26.4 BIP: 29.0 | B: 22.5 CS: 29.0 SS: 5.6 FB: 20.0 BIP: 22.2
| B: 14.1 CS: 27.5 SS: 7.8 FB: 18.4 BIP: 31.2 | B: 13.5 CS: 32.7 SS: 7.4 FB: 18.9 BIP: 26.6 |
Right-handed Hitter vs. Right Handed Pitcher
B: 9.4% CS: 17.8% SS: 8.1% FB: 31.5% BIP: 31.8%
| B: 5.1 CS: 19.9 SS: 12.1 FB: 31.2 BIP: 30.4 | B: 9.9 CS: 24.7 SS: 11.5 FB: 29.4 BIP: 23.1 | B: 2.7 CS: 21.5 SS: 5.8 FB: 28.6 BIP: 40.3
| B: 1.6 CS: 24.9 SS: 8.3 FB: 28.8 BIP: 35.1 | B: 3.0 CS: 36.8 SS: 8.3 FB: 26.3 BIP: 24.4 | B: 15.3 CS: 22.3 SS: 6.5 FB: 23.3 BIP: 31.7
| B: 14.6 CS: 29.3 SS: 5.7 FB: 20.9 BIP: 28.6 | B: 17.3 CS: 39.6 SS: 7.0 FB: 15.7 BIP: 19.7 |
The high number of balls on the corners comes as no surprise: the umpires do not call the strike zone as a square. Here’s a density graph of all the called strikes last year. Keep in mind this does not reflect the percentage but merely the raw number that are being called, so the density is affected by how many total pitches are being thrown to each zone. Still, you can clearly see that the corners are being clipped at the top and bottom corners and expanded at the belt.  What else stands out? Swinging strikes and foul balls do indeed increase further up in the zone, but there actually seems to be more pitches swung through away rather than in on the hands.
As you might expect, there are far more pitches taken and fewer balls in play on the outer half of the plate, especially low and away. Probably the biggest outlier (in bold) is the fastball low and away, which is put in play about 5-10% less often than if it leaks up or back over the plate.
And yes, the higher a pitch is, the more often it is swung through. However being inside actually seems to result in fewer swinging strikes. However, what you might not expect is that the further inside a pitch is thrown, the more often it is swung at, fouled off, and put in play. As well, there isn’t a glaring difference between these results depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
Left-handed Hitter vs. Right Handed Pitcher
B: 8.4 CS: 23.5 SS: 11.6 FB: 31.6 BIP: 23.0
| B: 6.0 CS: 16.9 SS: 10.3 FB: 33.3 BIP: 32.1 | B: 15.6 CS: 16.8 SS: 6.9 FB: 32.1 BIP: 27.6 | B: 1.9 CS: 31.0 SS: 8.4 FB: 28.1 BIP: 29.2 | B: 1.5 CS: 23.4 SS: 7.4 FB: 30.8 BIP: 35.3
| B: 7.1 CS: 24.8 SS: 4.2 FB: 29.9 BIP: 32.9
| B: 12.7 CS: 33.3 SS: 5.6 FB: 18.1 BIP: 29.6
| B: 14.5 CS: 28.2 SS: 5.8 FB: 21.2 BIP: 29.4 | B: 23.6 CS: 24.7 SS: 4.5 FB: 20.2 BIP: 25.9 |
Left-handed Hitter vs. Left Handed Pitcher
B: 10.0 CS: 26.2 SS: 13.0 FB: 28.7 BIP: 21.0
| B: 7.4 CS: 21.1 SS: 13.1 FB: 33.3 BIP: 23.5 | B: 13.0 CS: 14.1 SS: 8.8 FB: 32.0 BIP: 31.2 | B: 1.5 CS: 40.5 SS: 7.9 FB: 22.3 BIP: 26.8
| B: 1.8 CS: 27.9 SS: 7.6 FB: 28.4 BIP: 33.3 | B: 5.4 CS: 21.5 SS: 4.8 FB: 30.4 BIP: 37.2 | B: 14.7 CS: 44.5 SS: 6.1 FB: 14.8 BIP: 19.6
| B: 12.9 CS: 33.1 SS: 5.8 FB: 17.7 BIP: 30.2 | B: 17.2 CS: 23.0 SS: 5.2 FB: 24.2 BIP: 29.4 |
Lefties aren’t much different, except they get fewer balls called and more strikes on the outer third of the plate. The phenomenon of the strike zone being an extra 2 inches for them out there was first observed by John Walsh (and I will cover it thoroughly soon). On the other hand, they have significantly more balls called on the inner half of the strike zone so their strike zone is shifted and not just expanded. 2) FASTBALL OUTS (GB%/LD%/FB%/PO%)
Joe Sheehan’s article confirmed that every pitch is more likely to be hit on the ground the lower it is; now let’s see if there is a similar effect from inside to outside pitches Here are the type of outs made per ball in play (ground out=”GO”, Line Out=”LO”, Fly Out=”FO” Pop Out=”PO”).
Right-handed Hitter vs. Left Handed Pitcher
GO: 20.7% LO: 3.5% FO: 24.6% PO: 17.4%
| GO: 16.3 LO: 4.9 FO: 30.1 PO: 10.3
| GO: 20.8 LO: 8.5 FO: 28.0 PO: 5.6
| GO: 21.5 LO: 5.4 FO: 20.0 PO: 14.7
| GO: 22.4 LO: 5.3 FO: 24.3 PO: 9.0
| GO: 27.4 LO: 5.6 FO: 26.6 PO: 3.1
| GO: 25.3 LO: 5.7 FO: 21.5 PO: 7.3
| GO: 26.5 LO: 5.2 FO: 22..8 PO: 5.1
| GO: 31.1 LO: 4.5 FO: 22.3 PO: 3.6
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Right-handed Pitcher vs. Right Handed Hitter
GO: 20.4% LO: 3.2% FO: 24.6% PO: 18.4%
| GO: 16.2 LO: 6.0 FO: 30.2 PO: 11.4
| GO: 24.0 LO: 5.2 FO: 27.5 PO: 8.9
| GO: 25.8 LO: 4.5 FO: 22.8 PO: 10.4
| GO: 22.6 LO: 5.2 FO: 26.1 PO: 7.2
| GO: 26.9 LO: 5.8 FO: 27.8 PO: 4.6
| GO: 19.4 LO: 4.6 FO: 18.3 PO: 7.1
| GO: 32.2 LO: 6.4 FO: 22.3 PO: 4.8
| GO: 36.3 LO: 5.2 FO: 20.6 PO: 2.3
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The number of balls hit in the air doesn’t change, but the number of line drives decreases. Even more significant is that the frequency of pop outs skyrockets, so that is where the high and inside pitch really shines. The pop out rate for the high and inside fastball is incredibly high, as batters can’t make solid line drive contact and instead get “jammed” with pitches in on the barrel of the bat. The difference is rather dramatic: 1 in every 5.5 of fastball outs up and in come from pop outs, as opposed to 1 in 43 of them low and away. How significant is this? Last season, the Hardball Times pointed out that:
“When you think about it, the infield fly is just as bad as a strikeout; it's almost always caught for an out and the baserunners have no chance to advance. It's a pitcher's secret weapon. I also believe that both pitchers and batters have some innate ability to induce or avoid infield flies.”
Now we know that is true- a pitcher who works up and in on a consistent basis will induce far more pop outs. As you would expect, pitches low and away are the most likely to be tapped for grounders.
Left-handed Hitter vs. Right Handed Pitcher
GO: 21.1% LO: 3.1% FO: 30.8% PO: 7.5%
| GO: 16.1 LO: 4.3 FO: 32.4 PO: 11.9
| GO: 20.1 LO: 5.4 FO: 22.0 PO: 20.9
| GO: 26.2 LO: 5.6 FO: 26.5 PO: 3.4
| GO: 20.0 LO: 4.6 FO: 27.7 PO: 8.0
| GO: 24.9 LO: 4.3 FO: 20.1 PO: 14.6
| GO: 32.4 LO: 5.4 FO: 21.5 PO: 1.9
| GO: 26.5 LO: 6.2 FO: 21.4 PO: 4.0
| GO: 27.7 LO: 7.0 FO: 20.8 PO: 6.7
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Left-handed Pitcher vs. Left Handed Hitter
GO: 22.4% LO: 0.7% FO: 26.1% PO: 3.0%
| GO: 20.6 LO: 2.4 FO: 30.3 PO: 10.3
| GO: 17.6 LO: 6.5 FO: 26.8 PO: 15.0
| GO: 26.9 LO: 6.7 FO: 19.4 PO: 2.6
| GO: 24.0 LO: 2.9 FO: 24.0 PO: 6.1
| GO: 28.1 LO: 7.6 FO: 24.3 PO: 9.2
| GO: 34.4 LO: 4.5 FO: 20.4 PO: 2.5
| GO: 33.7 LO: 8.7 FO: 17.3 PO: 2.0
| GO: 40.8 LO: 4.9 FO: 13.4 PO: 5.6
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Again, not much of a difference in how the outs are sprayed between left and right handed hitters, at least nothing pops out without more data to identify minor trends. Some of the wild lefty-lefty results (40.8 in the lower right quadrant seems like one) can be discounted because of such a small sample size. One thing that does jump out though is the difference between favorable and unfavourable pitching matchups. Everything is identical for pitches in the upper 2/3 of the zone. But then towards the bottom of the strike zone, the ground ball rate for matchups that favour the pitcher is much higher. That would imply that the effect on where the ball goes is significant, but only if the pitcher can keep the ball down.
3) FASTBALL CONTACT (BABIP/SLG/HR%)
Of course none of this means anything if pitches in certain locations frequently go for innocent fly balls or are taken more often for strikes, but are equally like to be crushed 500 feet. So lets look at BABIP and SLGIP (both of which don’t include HR, so that rate is included separately). From Walsh’s article we already know that fastballs give up the most HR of any pitch- here’s how that breaks down:
Right-handed Hitter vs. Left Handed Pitcher
BABIP: .248 SLGIP: .308 HR: .062
| BABIP: .280 SLGIP: .371 HR: .067
| BABIP: .282 SLGIP: .357 HR: .050
| BABIP: .305 SLGIP: .395 HR: .052
| BABIP: .297 SLGIP: .408 HR: .061 | BABIP: .313 SLGIP: .401 HR: .042
| BABIP: .318 SLGIP: .420 HR: .057
| BABIP: .333 SLGIP: .431 HR: .050
| BABIP: .339 SLGIP: .416 HR: .022
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Right-handed Pitcher vs. Right Handed Hitter
BABIP: .242 SLGIP: .306 HR: .053
| BABIP: .268 SLGIP: .349 HR: .056
| BABIP: .284 SLGIP: .379 HR: .034
| BABIP: .281 SLGIP: .365 HR: .049
| BABIP: .303 SLGIP: .383 HR: .055
| BABIP: .293 SLGIP: .373 HR: .023
| BABIP: .343 SLGIP: .438 HR: .048
| BABIP: .281 SLGIP: .349 HR: .034
| BABIP: .313 SLGIP: .394 HR: .021
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So if you want to throw a fastball but can’t afford a home run, keep the ball low and away (righties can afford to let it leak up and in a little) Although slugging average is not particularly affected, the chance of him hitting a home run is less than half. On the other hand, the lack of pop outs seems to lead to a higher BABIP.
If you want to sap a sluggers average and power? Up and in truly is the way to go- but it had better be up. The further down the pitch is, the better the contact the hitter makes. If the pitch ends up down and in, batters tee off on the pitch better than if it was right down the middle. I have checked the R/R results for pitches down and in again and again because they look so out of place. But how many times have you heard the dejected clubhouse interview: “we wanted to come inside, but I left the pitch where he could turn on it”. Matchups mean nothing- the down and in fastball is to be avoided at all costs!
Left-handed Hitter vs. Right Handed Pitcher
BABIP: .285 SLGIP: .378 HR: .052
| BABIP: .254 SLGIP: .343 HR: .061
| BABIP: .260 SLGIP: .340 HR: .037
| BABIP: .320 SLGIP: .428 HR: .037
| BABIP: .315 SLGIP: .423 HR: .059
| BABIP: .290 SLGIP: .376 HR: .046
| BABIP: .328 SLGIP: .418 HR: .036
| BABIP: .343 SLGIP: .476 HR: .047
| BABIP: .300 SLGIP: .403 HR: .048
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Left-handed Hitter vs. Left Handed Hitter
BABIP: .429 SLGIP: .556 HR: .023
| BABIP: .236 SLGIP: .317 HR: .075
| BABIP: .272 SLGIP: .325 HR: .026
| BABIP: .378 SLGIP: .468 HR: .049
| BABIP: .316 SLGIP: .430 HR: .081
| BABIP: .255 SLGIP: .332 HR: .022
| BABIP: .368 SLGIP: .439 HR: .000
| BABIP: .308 SLGIP: .415 HR: .056
| BABIP: .293 SLGIP: .329 HR: .021
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It’s hard to get a handle on the L/L numbers because the sample size is too small to be reliable. You can still see a HR drought low and away (0 HR in 160 pitches), but there’s just too much fluctuation otherwise. As for how they do against right-handed pitching, the results are very similar when you consider they must be standing further inside to accommodate their shifted strike zone. Instead of down and in, left handed hitters feast on pitches that are plain down, and they have less of a HR drop off on the outside edge of the plate. Other than that, there’s no evidence here for a preference for pitches low or away.
Before wrapping things up, I’d like to mention the limitations of this sort analysis. Although there are definitely things to be learned here, these results don’t take into account individual situations or the dynamic between the hitter and pitcher. If you’ve just had a batter flailing away at an outside fastball and a slider low and away, you can throw out all these numbers away because a fastball inside is going to make him look stupid. If you’ve got a 98 mph fastball (or the batter is John McDonald), certain effects will be heightened and others diminished. And while I’ve left pitches off the plate for another day, I suspect that fastballs up and in that are just off the plate are even more effective than what we see here.
But all other things being equal, here’s what we’ve learned about the 4-seam fastball: Throwing fastballs up and in creates popups and leads to a low BABIP. Throwing them down and in loses games. Fastballs on the inner half of the plate don’t “sneak by” more easily. Inside fastballs (thrown for strikes) are not missed or fouled off more often. A fastball down and away is exceedingly difficult to hit for a home run. Favorable matchups for pitchers with the 4-seamer rely on keeping the ball down.
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