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Hello Prospect Lovers!
If you’re like me, about this time of the year you find yourself secretly wishing that Baseball America and John Sickels would find some “performance enhancing drugs” that would allow them all to work with no sleep so they could get their prospect writeups done sooner (I wonder… would the folks at 1-800-FLOWERS deliver Mountain Dew?) Okay, not really, waiting for each new team to be completed is fun, although a bit agonizing at times. But we have something for you, loyal readers, and the wait is done!
Several of the writers here at Baseball Digest Daily, including Joe Hamrahi himself, got together to prepare the official “Baseball Digest Daily 2007 Prospect List”. Not only that, but we have a well known “secret guest analyst” who is reviewing our work and offering feedback to make it the best prospect list around! And this isn’t just a list of names, oh no! In fact, here’s what you get:
A list of our combined “top 100” prospects (conveniently split into 2 sections, so you only have to wait 1 week for the whole list!) This will include short comments from the BDD writers on various prospects. A free-form commentary section, which will include lengthier commentary on various players (including stuff that didn’t “fit” into #1). - A 5-column list showing each of the top 100 lists in the minds of each contributor. Contributors are: Joe Hamrahi, Ryan Mock, Jim Correll, Scott Edelman, and myself (Rob McQuown).
- Your very own chance to ask questions! Just add a comment on the blog at http://www.baseballdigestdaily.com/blog/labels/prospects.html, and we’ll try to address as many as possible, either in the blog, or in future articles.
So, without further ado, here’s the “Baseball Digest Daily 2007 Prospect List”:
Rank
| Names
|
| BDD
| 100
| Chris Marrero
| OF, Was
| Was Washington’s top pick at #15 overall in the 2006 draft and has tremendous power potential. He was rated a 70 on the 20-80 scouts power scale. Some considered Marrero the best all-around high school position player. May miss wildly at times but is still very young. (Joe)
| 99
| Chris Carter
| 1b, Ari
|
| 98
| Justin Huber
| 1b, KC
|
| 97
| Jonathan Sanchez
| lhp, SF
|
| 96
| Donald Veal
| lhp, ChN
|
| 95
| Micah Owings
| rhp, Ari
|
| 94
| Matt Harrison
| rhp, Atl
|
| 93
| Hank Conger
| c, LAA
| Listed as one of the best HS bats in the 2006 draft, and he's done nothing to tarnish that perception, making consistent hard contact in his brief AZL experience. And he's still catching, which gives him a chance to be extra-special (Rob).
| 92
| Gaby Sanchez
| c, Fla
|
| 91
| Eric Duncan
| 1b, NYA
|
| 90
| Travis Denker
| 2b, LA
|
| 89
| Alberto Callaspo
| 2b, Ari
|
| 88
| Sean Rodriguez
| ss, LAA
|
| 87
| Jeremy Hellickson
| rhp, TB
|
| 86
| Sean Gallagher
| rhp, ChN
|
| 85
| Wade Davis
| rhp, TB
|
| 84
| Craig Hansen
| rhp, Bos
|
| 83
| Eric Campbell
| 3b, Atl
| My Major League Predictions (MLPs) translate each season into an MLB season given "normal growth". Campbell doesn't walk much, but his power translates to a .500+ SLG, and he projects to whiff less than 17% of the time. Rocco Baldelli and Brian McCann had similar translations at his age (Rob).
| 82
| Sean West
| lhp, Fla
|
| 81
| Trevor Crowe
| cf, Cle
| A 1st round pick for the Indians in 2005, Crowe has great tools and athleticism, but also appeals to the “Moneyball” generation. Crowe really knows how to get on base by working the strike zone. He’ll also deposit balls in the gap from time to time, but his power is not his best asset. Whether he can survive at a corner remains to be seen. (Joe)
| 80
| Yusmeiro Petit
| rhp, Fla
|
| 79
| Blake DeWitt
| 2b, LA
|
| 78
| Dustin Pedroia
| 2b, Bos
| Evokes the name of another middle infielder who wears red, but Pedroia is far more advanced as a hitter. His minor league stats indicate a guy who will average .294/.366/.422 with a 7% K%. That's 63 more points of slugging then Eck's career SLG. Expect a couple .400 OBP seasons (Rob).
| 77
| Brad Lincoln
| rhp, Pit
|
| 76
| Elijah Dukes
| rf, TB
|
| 75
| Mark Rogers
| rhp, Mil
| Note: rated before his injury was disclosed.
| 74
| Ubaldo Jimenez
| rhp, Col
|
| 73
| Miguel Montero
| c, Ari
|
| 72
| Eric Hurley
| rhp, Tex
|
| 71
| Dexter Fowler
| cf, Col
| Just 20 years-old, Fowler is long, lean, and mean. Has excellent gap power and can flat out fly. Needs to learn to pick his spots when stealing bases, but when he gets a good jump, there’s no stopping him. Home run potential is likely to grow as he fills out. Still, he is already very strong for his size. (Joe)
| 70
| Kory Casto
| 3b, Was
|
| 69
| Kurt Suzuki
| c, Oak
| It's easy to love Kurt Suzuki - look at that OBP. It may be true that OBP has gone from wildly underrated to wildly overrated in just a few short years since the publishing of "Moneyball" but when you have a catcher that can get on like Kurt Suzuki, you have a gem. (Ryan)
| 68
| Jacob McGee
| lhp, TB
|
| 67
| Carlos Gomez
| cf, NYN
|
| 66
| Nolan Reimold
| rf, Bal
|
| 65
| Brandon Erbe
| rhp, Bal
|
| 64
| Chris Volstad
| rhp, Fla
|
| 63
| Will Inman
| rhp, Mil
|
| 62
| Neil Walker
| c, Pit
|
| 61
| Chuck Lofgren
| lhp, Cle
|
| 60
| Humberto Sanchez
| rhp, NYA
|
| 59
| Troy Patton
| lhp, Hou
|
| 58
| Kevin Slowey
| rhp, Min
|
| 57
| Erick Aybar
| ss, LAA
| The question is, why was it so easy to overlook him? I’ve read that he is one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball, and yet Aybar has so much going against him. He is 22 so he still has some time to develop but after successfully rising through the minor league levels the past four seasons, Aybar hit a brick wall at triple-A. A .327 on base percentage leaves much to be desired from a 160 pounder. (Scott)
| 56
| Carlos Carrasco
| rhp, Phi
|
| 55
| Ryan Sweeney
| of, CHA
|
| 54
| Billy Rowell
| 3b, Bal
|
| 53
| Franklin Morales
| lhp, Col
| One of several live arms currently making their way through the Colorado system, left-hander Franklin Morales might be the best of the bunch. Able to dial his fastball up to 98 mph while pitching mostly at 94-95, Morales also features a well above average curveball and a much improved changeup over a year ago. (Jim)
| 52
| Philip Humber
| rhp, NYN
| | 51
| John Danks
| lhp, Tex
| |
Honorable Mention
Michael Bowden (rhp, Bos), Thomas Diamond (rhp, Tex), Cesar Carrillo (rhp, SD), Tyler Clippard (rhp, NYA)
Rob McQuown
My 101st prospect would be: That’s a tough call. I was shuffling guys around on a spreadsheet a lot as I prepared for this, and at the end, all the ones who fell off looked like they could be stars, but I either didn’t have enough data for them (e.g. 2006 draftees who haven’t played much pro ball yet), or thought they had a flaw or two that could prevent them from starring. Josh Fields was under consideration. I had to really bite the bullet to drop him all the way off the list, to be honest, with the great surface stats he had. Kevin Whelan could be a great closer, and was probably my top “relief pitcher” prospect, Brad Lincoln and Anthony Swarzak both have great arms, and would have been fine choices, but if push came to shove, Miguel Montero is probably the guy I most regretted not being able to rank. His stats will be inflated by playing in Arizona, and he could be a top-5 NL catcher offensively, possibly as soon as 2007.
Dustin Pedroia: I suspect that many people who read this are going to have some disbelief that I can rate Dustin Pedroia the #18 prospect in all baseball, and then go on to say that he’ll end up slugging just over .420 for his career. And to be honest, I had to do a double-take on that, myself (Who’s ranking these guys for me, anyway?! Step away from the keyboard, Mrs. Pedroia!) But first off, I think he’s very likely to end up reaching that level, whereas many other prospects aren’t so likely. Next, in order for a guy to post a .366 OBP, he’s going to be well over that rate with some frequency. Consider a couple players to whom Pedroia is frequently compared: Eckstein, career: .283/.351/.359. Loretta, career: .299/.363/.402. I actually believe that Pedroia has a chance to be more than “Mark Loretta with better power and defense”, mainly because his contact skills are so good that his game should keep improving late into his career. I see Pedroia’s down side as Mark Loretta’s career, and according to Baseball Prospectus, Loretta has already been worth 51 wins to his various teams. Finally, considering the plight of second-basemen, where the average AL second-baseman last year hit .280/.332/.395, Pedroia’s projection of .294/.366/.422 seems almost Ruthian!
Ryan Mock:
Why I love Kurt Suzuki: Easy, look at that OBP. It may be true that OBP has gone from wildly underrated to wildly overrated in just a few short years since the publishing of "Moneyball" but when you have a catcher that can get on like Kurt Suzuki, you have a gem. I have yet to see anything about him that says he will not be an excellent major league catcher. Maybe he is not the physically biggest guy at just around six feet tall, and he might never develop into a significant power threat, but he is defensively useful and gets on base like crazy for a catcher. For me, that's enough justification to rank him this high. My 100th player was - Jair Jurrjens: First and foremost, it is always fun to have one guy on your list with a name that no one has any idea how to pronounce. So getting him on here was exciting. But in my book he deserved it as well. If you look at his pro career he has shown he can to strike batters out, has solid command for his age, and a has a nice ability to get ground ball outs. There are three things a pitcher needs to do well to succeed in the big leagues: throw strikes, miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. Jurrjens has done all three so far in his career. Plus can you imagine what Tim McCarver would call him? My 101st player would be: A tie between my two favorite current college players: Justin Smoak of South Carolina and James Simmons of UC Riverside. These guys will be ranked very highly on one of these lists in the next couple of years. Jim Correll
Franklin Morales: One of several live arms currently making their way through the Colorado system, left-hander Franklin Morales might be the best of the bunch. Able to dial his fastball up to 98 mph while pitching mostly at 94-95, Morales also features a well above average curveball and a much improved changeup over a year ago. This past summer, he did his best to tame the offense-heavy California League, pitching a strong 154 innings while striking out 179 and holding batters to a measly .223 batting average. All is not rosy, however, as Morales also handed 89 free passes, so work still needs to be done on his command and maintaining a consistent delivery that can get out of whack at times. Wladimir Balentien: I ranked Wladimir Balentien 100th on my personal prospect list, but don’t let that skew your judgment for him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a long-shot to be an all-star in the majors, but if you wanted to pick a dark horse to root for, you could do worse than this guy. Blessed with prodigious power and a cannon for an arm, Balentien profiles as a prototypical rightfielder if everything falls right for him. Now the downsides. With his power, Balentien doesn’t have to hit the ball square to get it out of the ballpark, yet he swings at everything as if he’s powering the entire Seattle Sailing Club each time he comes to bat. And it shows in his numbers, driving his strikeout totals to 300 in the last two seasons and a dip in batting average to .230 in the Texas League this summer. If he can learn to be more selective while maintaining his power and modest batting eye (70 walks), he could force himself into Seattle’s big league plans by 2008. Scott Edelman
What do people see in Erick Aybar? It was actually an oversight that Aybar wasn’t included at all on my list (He should have been in the bottom half of my list). But the question is, why was it so easy to overlook him? I’ve read that he is one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball, and yet Aybar has so much going against him. He is 22 years old so he still has some time to develop but after successfully rising through the minor league levels the past four seasons, Aybar hit a brick wall at triple-A – the first real test for any prospect. His .283 batting average wasn’t too bad but a .327 on base percentage leaves much to be desired from a 160 pound shortstop. The best thing going for Aybar offensively is his speed but his stolen base rates throughout his minor league career (179-96, 65.1%) indicate that he needs to develop a lot more discipline in that area. Not ranking him in my top 100 was probably too harsh since this was Aybar’s first professional season in which he didn’t hit at least .300 and he scored over 100 runs the past two seasons in single-A and Double-A ball. It is just hard to project him as a potential star player – best case scenario seems to be more of a speed/defense specialist.
My 100th player was - Tyler Greene: While not a homer pick in the true sense of the word since I live in the Pacific Northwest, as a Cardinal fan I had to stick with my team when looking for the final player to round out my list. At 23 years old going into the 2007 season, Greene will have to prove himself quickly if he is going to have a major league career. The Cardinals made Greene their first round draft pick in 2005 after the shortstop exhibited a nice power-speed combination in two years of college ball at Geogia Tech – in 61 games in 2005 he stole 31 bases in 32 opportunities while batting .372 with a .460 on-base percentage and a .584 slugging average. The power didn’t translate well his first season in the minors, but in 2006 Green hit 15 home runs in 59 single-A games and stole 11 bases without getting caught. Plate discipline is a little lacking as he struck out 65 times in 223 at bats but he seems to have the skills to keep working his way up in the Cardinal system.
Joe Hamrahi
"I LOVE this guy!" - Chris Marrero: Was Washington ’s top pick at #15 overall in the 2006 draft and has tremendous power potential. He was rated a 70 on the 20-80 scouts power scale. Some considered Marrero the best all-around high school position player. May miss wildly at times but is still very young. Hit .309 in limited time in the GCL before contracting viral meningitis. Surprisingly, did not hit a home run, but he did manage 9 doubles in 81 at bats. Originally a third baseman, Marrero was moved to the outfield with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at third base in D.C. Marrero can really give the Nationals a much needed power boost if he continues to grow into a more polished hitter.
Dexter Fowler: Just 20 years-old, Fowler is long, lean, and mean. Has excellent gap power and can flat out fly. Needs to learn to pick his spots when stealing bases, but when he gets a good jump, there’s no stopping him. Home run potential is likely to grow as he fills out a little. Still, he is already very strong for his size. Fowler has great makeup and most likely would have gone in the first few rounds of the 2004 draft (instead of the 14th round) had he not signed a letter of intent to attend the University of Miami . He’s already a good defender and makes getting to the ball look real easy. There’s no wonder he has drawn comparisons to Andruw Jones.
My 100th player was - Curtis Thigpen: Curtis is nearing an opportunity with the Blue Jays. Whether he takes advantage of that opportunity remains to be seen. Put together a solid, yet unspectacular season at AA before moving on to AAA-Syracuse. Gets on base but doesn’t have a ton of power. In some ways he’s Russ Martin “light.” Thigpen was rated the Eastern League’s top defensive catcher in 2006. He handles the position well, and many think he will just continue to get better. Had a solid offensive campaign in the Arizona Fall League this year, but then again, doesn’t everyone?
Trevor Crowe: A 1st round pick for the Indians in 2005, Crowe has great tools and athleticism, but also appeals to the “Moneyball” generation. Crowe really knows how to get on base by working the strike zone. He’ll also deposit balls in the gap from time to time, but his power is not his best asset. Whether he can survive at a corner outfield position remains to be seen. Trevor is best suited for centerfield from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, but he isn’t about to supplant Grady Sizemore anytime soon. If he can maintain a high on base percentage and rip 30-35 doubles to go with 10-15 home runs, Trevor Crowe can be a valuable asset in the Cleveland outfield. |
