Tomorrow is Draft Day. And virtually any baseball insider will assert strongly that lefty pitching is something that is golden. Something to go out of the way to attain. Scouting reports will read “blah, blah, blah”, and indicate a player who isn't exciting and doesn't appear to be an exceptional MLB prospect, and then the words, “, and throws from the left side” will appear. The same, plain, vanilla prospect suddenly transforms, as if he's a well-disguised mutant with hidden special powers.
This author doesn't pretend to be a draft expert. In the past, it's been necessary for competitive reasons (in sim leagues) to research the scouting reports on guys from the wide variety of backgrounds that feed into the MLB first-year player draft, but the numbers are very difficult to attach much meaning to, in terms of MLB translations, but the best prospect experts are all over these various backgrounds. One such expert, John Sickels, who makes his “Mock Draft” available for free on his site, www.minorleagueball.com, has included 10 left-handed hurlers among the top 46 picks (first round plus supplemental picks):
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
Let's think about the numbers for a minute... Mr. Sickels includes 25 pitchers among his top 46, or 54%. This already seems like a lapse in judgment on the part of teams if they go this pitching-heavy. Everyone knows that hitting skills are much more easily projected than pitching skills, and the slightest injury can knock even the most talented pitcher's career off the rails. But then, there's the eventual utility of these guys. In the past few years, the plate appearances against RHP and LHP have been about 131,000/yr against RHP and 51,000/yr against LHP, or about 28% lefties. Predictably, league-wide, the batting stats against each have been almost identical (though the vsL stats have been a tiny bit worse, with 2007 being significantly worse ... thanks to Ryan Braun, perhaps?)
Forty Percent (40%) of the expected first-round pitchers are left-handed, despite lefties pitching only 28% of the innings in MLB. This is 22% of overall expected first-round picks.
Is that just this year? Are Matusz, Schlereth, Lobstein, et al, that much better than a typical year?
2004: 11 LHP among 41 1st-round picks (17 RHP)
2005: 8 LHP among 48 1st-round picks (18 RHP)
2006: 6 LHP among 44 1st-round picks (21 RHP)
2007: 13 LHP among 64 1st-round picks (19 RHP)
That works out to 34% (of pitchers) and 19% (overall). So, either this year's crop contains more good lefties, or John Sickels just likes them a bit better than a standard crop. Still, there does seem to be something to this lefty “mystique”, since the league as a whole has used 34% of its 1st-round pitcher picks to get players who pitch 28% of the innings. But who are these first-round lefties? There have been 38 of them in the past four years. How have they done? Are they still on track to earn their signing bonuses, and justify an early pick?
2005 (8): Ricky Romero, Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Bogusevic, Cesar Ramos, Beau Jones, Sean West, Garrett Olson
2006 (6): Andrew Miller, Kershaw, Kiker, David Huff, Kris Johnson, Evarts
2007 (13): Price, Moskos, Detwiler, Bumgarner, Savery, Nick Schmidt, Poreda, Smoker, Brett Cecil, James Adkins, Vineyard, Hagadone, Luebke,
With Purcey's debut this year, 10 of the 38 have already made debuts, to varying degrees of success:
- Some have made contributions already, and appear destined for stardom, namely Clayton Kershaw.
- Some have had mixed results so far, but still retain some good hope of stardom: Miller, and perhaps Purcey (seems to be back from injuries) and Perkins.
- Some have seen significant MLB time, and appear to have slotted into lesser roles (i.e. Not front-of-rotation SP or closer): Tankersley, Bray (injuries have slowed him), Sowers, Howell, Zach Jackson, and Olson.
Of the other 28, there also is a mixed bag of results so far in the minors:
Price seems set to join Kershaw as a can't-miss lefty ace, the Holy Grail of prospecting. All along there have been some rumblings about his lack of top-tier velocity, but few seem worried that he'll be anything less than a #2 starter, and likely a dominant #1 (although that's going to be a tough rotation to stay on top of, with all their great arms).
For the other prospects, it's sort of a question of whether their stock has gone up or down. To evaluate that for high-school pitchers from 2006 and 2007 is almost impossible, since if their arms have remained attached to their bodies, their stock probably hasn't gone down much, given the uncertainty of HS pitchers. As with any group of pitchers, many – both HS and college - have been hurt. Elbert, Schmidt, etc.
Roughly categorizing these guys, the pre-2007 draftees values come out as:
- RISE:
- FALL (many have been injured): Elbert, Campbell, Lumsden, Ricky Romero, Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Bogusevic, Ramos, Sean West, Kris Johnson
- SAME: Gio Gonzalez, Beau Jones, Kiker (stats don't look great in 08, but it's the California League), Evarts, Huff
By “SAME”, these are 1st-round picks, so it's not meant as any sort of slight. But, in short, what are these teams thinking? What leads a team to use a vital, franchise-building, first-round pick on a guy which Baseball America can write about, “He’s not overpowering with a four-seam fastball that sits at 85-88 mph and touches 90. His two-seamer has even less velocity, but more movement. But he’s sneaky fast, throwing on a downhill plane with pinpoint accuracy.“ (That's from Cesar Ramos, 2005, but it could be any number of these guys) Why pay a guy like that $1mil to sign (more for higher-round picks), when you can pick up Heath Phillips or his ilk off waivers every year?
Sure, there are difference-making pitchers - guys like Kershaw and Price – who need to be drafted whenever they are available. But can it possibly make sense for teams to take players whose upside is the same as the freely available waiver-wire talent? Sure, taking John Lannan in a later round (Washington's 11th-round pick from 2005, no signing bonus) makes sense. And, sometimes, it seems as though the lefty mystique convinces teams they need to use their early first-round picks on certain pitchers.
Perhaps picking on the Pirates drafts is too easy, but consider the Daniel Moskos pick last year. Baseball America ranked him the 8th-best prospect entering the draft, and the 3rd-best lefty pitcher in a deep crop of lefties. What would inspire the Pirates to pick him 4th? Money? Sure, Wieters took $6mil to sign, or $3.4mil more than Moskos. But LaPorta signed for a mere $2mil, and – especially with the crazy plan of the departed Dave Littlefield to make Moskos a reliever – is there any possible way that a reasonable look at “expected values” for these three players makes those millions important? Can't these clubs get creative with their financing if it's a cash flow problem? So, you pay Wieters more than $6mil, but stretch it out over a few years on a payment plan. What do they have instead? A pitcher who isn't sure if he's a starter or a reliever (he relieved in college before moving into the rotation in his final year, and relieved in 2007, but is back in the rotation this year). He has struck out a grand total of 35 high-A batters in 50 innings so far in 2008 (and has a 5.22 ERA too). That's not terrible news if a prospect is a precocious 18-year-old, but in a 3-year college veteran who's already 22, it's not what a team wants to see. And the Pirates, while they could be relied upon to make a draft mistake, aren't alone. Even Ross Detwiler (BA's #6-best 2007 pre-draft prospect, taken #6) is struggling at age 22 in high-A ball, with 26 walks in 46 IP. At least he's punching out batters (50), but when it's considered that LaPorta, Heyward, and other much safer picks were available, it's just crazy.
What are teams thinking? Well, the book is often that these lefties “know how to pitch”. And that shouldn't be taken lightly, but – in the case of college hurlers – often can be code for “knows how to get college kids out.” The hope is that the team will be able to percolate these guys through the minors, right into the #3 slot in their rotation, just like the Pirates did with Paul Maholm. Seriously, that's a “success story” for these guys... able to post a 5.00 ERA in a pitcher's park in the National League (to be fair, his career ERA is 4.62, but his 41.1 IP – 2.18 ERA - in his rookie season – when nobody had seen him yet – influenced that total somewhat).
So, who among the 10 lefties from the 2008 draft are likely to be over-valued tomorrow?
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego – BA ranks him the 2nd-best prospect, and concludes his scouting report with, “If he improves his fastball [...], he can become a staff ace.” If he gets picked top-10 (very likely), he will be over-drafted and over-compensated with the bonus.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky – works at 88-91 MPH. Pass.
28) Yankees: Brett Devall, LHP, Florida HS – might be difficult to sign due to a commitment to UGA, but wouldn't be a catastrophic pick in the late first round, though he seems to couple both the lack of velocity and the “HS pitcher” risks, making him a prime candidate to be highly over-rated. He is a tall high-school pitcher, with plenty of growth time remaining. Still a reach this early, but not ridiculous, given the upside.
32) Brewers: Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana – has an extra 1-2 MPH over most college lefties, but lacks control. That translates to more risk and more upside. If it's true that teams see him as a reliever, he shouldn't go this early, but it doesn't seem terrible.
34) Phillies: Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS – BA has this guy rated #40, but his scouting report certainly sounds better than that. He's a high-school player, so the risks are there, but he's tall, and has reached 94 MPH, so the upside is great.
35) Brewers: Tyler Stovall, LHP, Alabama HS – Frankly, the best thing about this guy's scouting report is that he'll graduate at the top of his class. Seems like the sort of guy who will fall to the second round or later, and be a question mark to sign away from college.
39) Cardinals: Dan Schlereth, LHP, Arizona – Already a reliever, and serious injury concerns. Pass.
41) Cubs: Robbie Ross, LHP, Kentucky HS – Now, HERE is an exciting high-school prospect, especially if he's around in the supplemental picks. The fact that he's only listed as being 6' tall will scare away most teams, but his upside is a very tall.
44) Yankees: Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS – I'm sure Sickels considered that it would take a generous bonus to lure him away from Arizona by listing him here. But he's not very good. The Yankees can get someone with much more upside with their resources, and Lobstein can go play for the Wildcats.
46) Padres: Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA – profiles exactly as the sort of guy who will end up somewhere between long-reliever/swingman, and washing out of the league. Consider his contributions to the team which drafts him as being less than they invest in him. Fitting that Sickels has him going to the Padres.
So, is the mystique gone yet? Teams should really take someone with upside, regardless of throwing hand. Paying a guy a $1mil bonus to potentially become a back-end starter or LOOGY just doesn't work. If a team is going to invest a pick and signing bonus into a guy, take either a hitter (who are very predictable), or a pitcher who makes the scouts jaws drop in unison because his stuff is so nasty. Honestly, for draft purposes, teams would probably do better to just erase the pitching hand from the players they are reviewing. A marginal pitcher is still a marginal pitcher, even if he throws lefty. If he throws righty, the same “mystique” doesn't apply, and some of the above pitchers will get drafted higher than they should tomorrow... costing teams the opportunity to select true star players, and hefty signing bonuses well above the value the guys will return to the team.
Rob McQuown is writer and analyst for Baseball Digest Daily and former employee of Stats, Inc. Questions and comments for this article may be submitted to Rob at . Past articles for this author can be found under “Staff Writers” at the Baseball Digest Daily site.
