By Jonathan Hale
This week I’m taking a break from looking at the best performances out there to focus on a pitcher that is having serious problems. To go along with Paul Nyman’s work on why Phil Hughes has been having trouble this season, here’s what pitch f/x can tell us about what has been happening to the ball. Of course, Phil has broken a rib and is out until the all-star break, so all this attention is now a post-mortem examination on a first half gone terribly wrong for the Yankee’s young hurler.
Control
Hughes’ walk rate was way up this year, from 3.59 to 5.32 per nine innings. Against right handed batters, he tended to work the inside part of the plate, but had trouble finding the inside edge strike zone with his fastball. His curve was actually a more reliable pitch: Control VS. Right-Handed Batters
Control Vs. Left-Handed Batters
Against Lefties, Hughes throws a changeup, but he couldn’t find the zone at all with it at all this year, either sailing it up and away out of the strike zone, or bouncing it in the dirt. Last season, he was able to locate it down and away to left handed batters. Against Lefties, Hughes throws a changeup, but he couldn’t find the zone at all with it at all this year, either sailing it up and away out of the strike zone, or bouncing it in the dirt. Last season, he was able to locate it down and away to left handed batters. Release Point
As Nyman points out in his article on mechanics, release point is the result of all body motions and therefore quite possibly a symptom of something gone wrong rather than the cause itself. Still, for whatever reason Hughes had a very different looking release point this season: 
Than he did one year ago: You can also see him throwing from a lower slot that gives him more variation in release point from side to side on his fastball than up and down. Also of note is that his curves are now coming out of a consistently higher (and slightly to the side) location rather than the same place as his other pitches. The result? Inconsistent movement on his pitches. Here is a crisp-looking movement chart from 2007. (The perspective is from the catcher’s viewpoint, with (0,0) being where a pitch without any spin or would go): 2007 Movement  Notice the tight groups of pitches, as compared to his results so far this season:
Not only have Hughes’ breaking balls been much less consistent, but the movement on his fastballs was all over the place as well. He was getting a lot of tail on his fastball as well as his changeup (probably part of the reason they are both ending up off the plate to the left hand side of the catcher.
Also of note is that Hughes has almost abandoned his changeup. Last year it was 17 of all pitches (mostly to left-handed batters), but in 2007 that plummeted to 4.3%. That let opposing batters sit off his fastball (when it was in the zone). Of 34 hits against Hughes, 28 of them came against his fastball, most of them right at or below the belt: 
One reason that Hughes’ fastball is more hittable is that it has lost some velocity. Here is where it was throughout last season, typically hovering between 92 and 93 with a few starts where he found another gear:
In his first two starts, Hughes’ fastball was way down, even dropping below 90. Over two innings before being rained out on April 25th, he was throwing the best he had all season, but then dropped down in velocity again before going on the DL.
There you have it…I along with the rest of you will be waiting to hear what theories Paul has for what has happened to Phil Hughes’ mechanics, but there’s a look at the lack of effectiveness that they translated into. Phil Hughes struggles to start his second season were due to a drop in velocity, an uncontrollable changeup, and a fastball that either tailed off the inside corner for a ball or was getting knocked around. |
