I am going to start a new feature here at Baseball Digest Daily titled "Fantasy Friday's". I know catchy, riiiiight? Truth be told, I probably stole this idea from somewhere else. That said, this column will look at various players, draft strategies, useful links and maybe a mail bag.
Fantasy Opening Day has gone by, and I would assume that many people have already completed a draft, if not a real draft a mock draft-presumably at Mock Draft Central (MDC). If not, you are in the same boat as me. This season, however, I am uncertain if my lack of current drafts (or soon-to-be drafts) is a simple wait and see, or if I have lost some interest in fantasy sports altogether. Only time will tell I suppose.
In any event, this first article will focus on a catcher whom I think should not only break out and be of incredible value, but should also be a player whom a team can not live without. That player is Dioner Navarro. I know what you are thinking. And I can picture it going something along the lines of, "Alright, why am I wasting my time with this?" Well if you made it to this point, then hear me out...
Dioner Navarro had, by all accounts, a miserable season in 2007. His career line is only marginally better. However, this is a guy with a guaranteed full time job, something that many of Tim Dierkes' top 24 catchers, do not have. This is also a guy who did not hit for extreme power as a minor leaguer having an OPS of .744. To be honest, I can understand and accept some skepticism, but stay with me. As a 19 year old in double A, Navarro hit for an OPS of .859. Keep in mind, he was playing catcher and had only been in America playing professional baseball for about two years at that point.
According to John Sickels, Navarro entered the 2005 season ranked ahead of Russell Martin in the Dodgers prospect report. Both rated as B prospects; however Sickels decided to place Navarro ahead of Martin.
Fast-forward to 2007. Navarro's new team (and third of his career) is the budding Tampa Bay Rays. Navarro projects as Tampa's starting catcher and there really isn't any competition lurking within the Rays organization. In addition, the prospect they do have has performed well, however playing against younger competition.
With that in mind, let us break down Navarro's 2007 season.
The first thing I imagine most will look at when evaluating Navarro for their 2008 drafts, are his in season split stats. Navarro had a pathetic first half OPS of .491 and a strong, if not spectacular, second half OPS of .815. When all is said and done, he had a tOPS+ of nearly 100 points higher in the second half. However, that is not the story I want to look at. Certainly it is one to consider, but it is not the one I want to focus on.
I would like to take a look at Navarro's Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP). If you are a fantasy baseball player, you have undoubtedly heard this statistic beat into the ground. However, this stat can be a useful one in context. The first graph below shows that even when Navarro was at his best, he still wasn't doing anything otherworldly. This suggests to me, that it was no fluke. If we continue through the graphs, we can see that it appears as if something clicked for Navarro. Look at the second graph. That something appears to be that Navarro began making some better contact. His ground ball percentage (green) begins to fall as his line drive percentage (red) begins to rise. Something else also occurs around the same time. Navarro's isolated power (ISO) beings a steady rise, actually making it up to 'good' levels by seasons end.
However, things were not all sunshine and lollipops for Mr. Navarro. There is one number that went in a direction that worries me. At around mid season, Navarro was hovering around the 'good' level in terms of striking out. However, with the added power (noted through line drive percentage and ISO) he also added strikeouts. If we can, for a second, think of Adam Dunn and other power hitters, we can see that home runs and strikeouts nearly go hand in hand. This is not to say Navarro is suddenly going to mash 45 bombs, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
With all of this in mind, what are the 'experts' saying?
However, in my estimation, these projections are extremely low, if in fact Navarro has made the strides that he appeared to make in the second half of last season. That said, I would consider a .713 OPS as the low end rather then the high. I would put his ceiling at around .830. Overall, I'm thinking .770 or .780…around where Jason Varitek and Brian McCann finished in 2007.
Now, you may be saying, “so what”. How does this sound. According to Yahoo!’s Draft Analysis, Navarro is not among the top 22 catchers…this fits with Dierkes rankings. Thus, we can assume he could be had in the last round or two. Compare that to McCann, who on average, is being drafted in the 6th round (67.9 overall), or Kenji Johjima in the 10th (120.8th overall). What about Rodriguez in the 11th (143.3rd overall)? At best, I would expect each of these individuals to finish only marginally ahead of Navarro, yet the majority of people are willing to spend at least an 11th round pick on them.
To further this point, let’s talk “hypothetical”. Let’s say you are sitting at the draft with the 65th overall pick. Who you have drafted up to this point does not make much difference, unless it is a single catcher leaguer, and you have already drafted one of the upper tier backstops-something I do not advocate unless you get them at an incredible bargain. You are looking at McCann and weighing your options. You can either draft McCann at this point or go after a Gary Sheffield. Let's say you take McCann and decide to wait the rest of the draft to fill the slot Sheffield would have taken. According to Yahoo!’s preseason position ranker, the 80th ranked OFer is David DeJesus. Tim Dierkes has Chris Duncan as his 76th ranked OFer (these are the last two players by their specific ranking systems).
With this in mind, let’s pretend that my projection for Navarro comes true and he essentially duplicates McCann's season. What combination of players is going to look better, Sheffield and Navarro or McCann and Duncan/DeJesus. The answer is obvious.
This, again, is hypothetical. However, I feel the numbers show that Navarro is likely to break out. I understand this will not be a popular opinion and it will rub certain people the wrong way, but the name of the game in sports is maximizing value. If you can get equal, or close to equal value, at a different point in the draft, then you go for it and jump at spots where the value cannot be duplicated.
The Pessimistic Projection: 60 runs, 15 home runs, 75 runs batted in, .260 and .320.
The Optimistic Projection: 75 runs, 25 home runs, 80 runs batted in, .275 and .345.
As mentioned, I will also provide links with each post. For now, they will be called my "Link of the Week". This week, check out Fake Teams, a website dedicated to everything fantasy. The author (or authors) are very knowledgeable and regularly dig deeper than other websites to figure out value.
Wow, I have got to learn how to cut things shorter. Hopefully I manage to do that in my next post (Value in the middle infield).
If you would like to contact me to ask a question or simply challenge anything I have to say, feel free to email me at
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