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Throwing Smoke (and Mirrors) |
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Contributed by Jonathan Hale
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Monday, 18 February 2008 |
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By Jonathan Hale
Of course there’s more to pitching than throwing the ball hard, but it’s hard not to glance at the radar gun when a real flamethrower is on the mound. A pitcher who can break triple digits makes national headlines whether or not he’s any more effective, and can thrill an entire stadium no matter what the score. On the other hand, it’s also impressive when a pitcher can make it in the major leagues on guile and deception even though he’s pretty much lobbing the ball over the plate. So who are the guys at either end of the speed spectrum? For the following rankings, I’ve averaged all the 4-seam fastballs over the 2008 season, so they’re probably a little lower than the numbers people think of (due to pitchers wearing down towards the end of the game, or in come cases being not at 100% due to injury). Also included is the average vertical movement (the pfx_z value for anyone who thinks in pitch f/x speak) compared to a spinless to give an idea of how much pure “rise” the fastest pitches have. The league average rise is about 9 inches. Fastest Starters (Average ERA: 3.92)
Name
| Average MPH
| Rise on Fastball (inches)
| Felix Hernandez
| 96.2
| 8.3
| A.J. Burnett
| 96.0
| 9.6
| Josh Beckett
| 94.8
| 9.6
| Dustin McGowan
| 94.8
| 10.1
| Daniel Cabrera
| 94.6
| 10.5
| Justin Verlander
| 94.5
| 9.3
| Edwin Jackson
| 93.6
| 10.6
| Brad Penny
| 93.2
| 11.7
| Jake Peavy
| 92.9
| 9.8
| Matt Cain
| 92.7
| 10.6
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Felix Hernandez manages to top the list while pointing out a flaw in the quick-and-dirty definition of a 2-seamer/sinker as any fastball with less than 6 inches of rise. Hernandez throws a lot of pitches that tail more than his 4-seamers and sink just a bit. They’re not as hard at the 98 mph fastball he can throw, but are still enough for tops in the league.
Slowest Starters (Average ERA: 4.45)
Name
| Average MPH
| Rise on Fastball (inches)
| Tim Wakefield
| 75.1
| 10.1
| Jamie Moyer
| 81.6
| 8.7
| Livan Hernandez
| 83.2
| 8.6
| Paul Byrd
| 83.8
| 9.5
| Mark Buehrle
| 84.8
| 8.8
| Tom Glavine
| 85.0
| 10.8
| David Wells
| 85.2
| 9.8
| Doug Davis
| 85.3
| 10.5
| Barry Zito
| 85.5
| 11.8
| Steve Trachsel
| 86.5
| 10.8
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No real surprises here…Wakefield is in a whole other category, but it probably looks about 90 when it comes after one of 65 mph knuckleballs. Barry Zito is also an interesting case- his “rise” number is so high because he comes almost right over the top (which would reduce any sinking/tailing movement and could help with control). Now on to the relievers: Fastest Relievers Name
| Average MPH
| Rise on Fastball (inches)
| Joba Chamberlain
| 97.8
| 11.5
| Matt Lindstrom
| 97.4
| 9.6
| Joel Zumaya
| 97.2
| 9.0
| Dennis Sarfate
| 96.6
| 12.8
| Heath Bell
| 96.3
| 11.1
| Chris Ray
| 96.1
| 9.6
| Seth McClung
| 95.9
| 11.0
| Jonathan Broxton
| 95.8
| 11.2
| Brad Lidge
| 95.8
| 10.5
| Ubaldo Jiminez
| 95.6
| 9.2
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As you would expect, the fastest relievers throw 3-4 mph faster than the starters. It will be interesting to see where Joba Chamberlain’s fastball ends up when he is moved to the Yankee’s rotation halfway through next year. Dennis Sarfate is probably the only unknown on that list- he was traded to the Orioles in the Miguel Tejada deal but has not done much so far due to command problems. Slowest RelieversName
| Average MPH
| Rise on Fastball (inches)
| Mike Bacsik
| 84.9
| 10.1
| Aaron Fultz
| 85.0
| 9.6
| Travis Blackley
| 85.7
| 9.8
| Matt Wise
| 85.8
| 10.0
| Trevor Hoffman
| 85.9
| 13.55
| Ron Flores
| 86.2
| 8.5
| Jamie Walker
| 86.5
| 9.3
| Jorge Campillo
| 86.8
| 10.5
| Bobby Livingston
| 86.9
| 7.67
| Chris Seddon
| 87.3
| 9.5
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Fewer crafty veterans and more straight-up nobodies without a good fastball in the bullpen that the rotation, but some guys like Aaron Fultz (ERA: 2.92) had really good years (in his case mostly due to his sinker). And look at the rise on Hoffman’s fastball? He comes over the top as well, which could contribute to the effectiveness of his changeup, as it would tend to make it look like it is sinking more.
Now that we’ve seen the highs and the lows, here’s a look at the breakdown across the entire league, both starters and relievers, by the speed of their fastball.
Who says you need a 90+ MPH fastball to pitch in the big leagues? Although the average of all fastballs was 91, the single most common velocity thrown by a pitcher last year was somewhere between 89.5 and 90 mph.
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 06 March 2008 )
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