In 2007, the Colorado Rockies surprised the baseball world by making it to their first-ever World Series. They did this with a core of young talent, ever-consistent Todd Helton, and lots of prayer (Baseball's Rockies seek revival on two levels, USA Today). Yet, while few see the NL as having a “Goliath” this year, few are picking this “David” team to repeat in 2008. Is it reasonable to assume that the Rockies will slip back into the mediocrity which had defined them for so many years, or will God heed their prayers to “enlarge my territory” (1 Chronicles 4:9-10, popularized in “The Prayer of Jabez”, by Bruce Wilkinson).
God works in mysterious ways, but generally baseball statistics tend to have good predictive value when taken on a large scale, regardless of core beliefs. The 2007 Rockies may have beaten the “odds” in 2007, having been picked last Baseball Prospectus, and virtually never picked to finish above 3rd in their division. But it was a tight division. Only a win in the tiebreaking game #163 allowed them to avoid a 3rd-place finish, despite winning as many games as any team in the NL with that win. And BP had them slated for 79 wins, so their last-place projection was more about Giants optimism. Further, they projected the Rockies offense almost to the number (860 runs scored vs. 863 projected).
Pitching:
Offense is much easier to predict than pitching is. This is especially true for a team playing in a place where a single bad outing can turn into a game which adds .1 to the team ERA in a flash. Which pitchers over-performed so much in 2007, and what can be expected to happen in 2008?
Starting Rotation:
When is the last time a World Series team had such an undistinguished starting rotation? Only Jeff Francis started 30 or more games. Only Franklin Morales and Mark Redman had ERAs under 4.12 (3.43 and 3.20, respectively, with 11 starts between them). 13 pitchers started games for the team. If you take out the 17-9 record Francis posted, the remainder went 38-39, with only Redman going more than 1 game over .500 (2-0), and Fogg being the only double-digit winner (10-9).
Even with a solid bullpen, the team's started only managed to post a 55-47 record with a 4.58 ERA. Hitters hit .274/.335/.443 against them. That's not terribly different from the 2006 stats of 4.72, .280/.345/.440. So, can more of the same be expected in 2008?
SP 1: Jeff Francis – Francis saw his ERA and WHIP go up in 2007, but his peripherals other than home runs allowed all improved. Based on BABIP, he was “lucky” in 2006, and “unlucky” in 2007, so if this averages out in 2008 and he maintains the gains in peripherals, he should break the 4.00 ERA barrier, a rare feat in Colorado – even with the humidor. In an ideal world, a team would have an “ace” ahead of Francis, and he'd make a very nice #2 starter.
SP 2: Aaron Cook – Very possibly the most-underrated pitcher in MLB. With career marks of 36-35, 4.43 ERA, almost 1.5 WHIP and 3.4 K/9, he's a Rotisserie nightmare. But this is a guy who had a better xFIP in 2007 than all of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, and even Chris Young. All that being said, he's – like Francis – a slot behind what's being asked of him, better cast as a #3 starter than as a #2.
SP 3: Ubaldo Jimenez – Who knows what to expect from his electric arm? Until 2007, he appeared to be on track to become at least a #3 starter, with even more upside. Then, he was awful in AAA (5.85 ERA and 1.67 WHIP). But he was still promoted, and – surprisingly – pitched very well in Colorado (4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). He'll be 24 in 2008, and has pitched less than 100 MLB innings.
SP 4: Franklin Morales – Morales is 2 years younger than Jimenez, yet he too was promoted after struggling in AAA (1.94 WHIP in 3 starts). In fairness to him, he was exceptional in AA before that (17 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). And he did admirably well for a 21-year-old in his two starts en route to the World Series (Boston then slapped him around in 2 relief appearances).
SP 5: Jason Hirsh – Hirsh was one of the most-helped by the Rockies great defense in 2007, and had a .254 BABIP. Any “growth” he has in 2008 can be expected to be neutralized by a rebound of that BABIP to more normal levels. A very solid pitcher for a #5 starter.
Lumping Jimenez and Morales together, they inject a huge amount of variability into the Rockies 2008 rotation. Behind the 5 pitchers above, things aren't pretty for the Rockies, and if any of the unproven guys falter, or if someone gets injured again (as Cook did last year), this rotation could be just as spotty in 2008. An optimistic outlook sees them dropping a quarter run off their rotation's ERA (4.33), but a pessimistic outcome seems just as likely, and that would be well over 5.00. Figure a slight dropoff in effectiveness from 2007 overall, with the 2nd half being better than the first half if things go well for the team.
Bullpen: The Rockies have had more than their share of highly-effective no-name relief pitching in their history. From Steve Reed and Curt Leskanic with the Blake Street Bombers to Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas in 2007. In fact, none of the 6 most-used relievers had an ERA over 3.93, and the relievers posted a composite line of 35-26, 3.85 with a batting line against them of .252/.322/.385. If PETCO is your home park, that's not a great line... but in Colorado, that's fantastic. I won't pretend to be able to predict relievers, but Corpas and Fuentes at the back end of this bullpen look as solid as most any other team's bullpen back end. It seems very likely that the team stats won't be as good in 2008, just because “charmed” bullpen seasons don't often repeat, and it doesn't take much to ruin a stat line. That doesn't mean they will be any less effective, since a loss is a loss, regardless of how many runs the mop up pitcher allows.
Batting/Fielding:
Very little should chance in 2008 from the 2007 team. Assuming that Tulowitzki and the 4 “corner” positions stay about the same, let's consider the other positions:
Catcher:
Ben Petrick, J.D. Closser, and ...Chris Iannetta? Somehow, the Mets came to their senses at the 11th hour and didn't overpay Torrealba. At his current salary, he's a very useful guy to have around, but the Rockies have to be hoping for Iannetta's emergence. As a bad omen, BP's leading PECOTA-comparable player to him at age 25 is indeed Ben Petrick. But Petrick was a very promising hitting prospect until his health issues. Iannetta is projected to have “Eq” (neutral ballpark) stats of .250/.336/.423 in 2008. That would be better than Torrealba by a significant margin. Iannetta isn't as good defensively, but should be able to handle teams which aren't loaded with speed. Between the two of them, it seems reasonable for Rox fans to expect slightly more in 2008 than the .240/.320/.364 stats they got from the catching position last year. Maybe +10 runs on offense.
Second Base:
First up, my belief is that the “Ian Stewart to second base” talks are just Rotisserie-induced delusions. That leaves Marcus Giles and Jayson Nix (and maybe even Matt Kata) to contend for the position. While “walks and homers” fans of baseball figure that Kaz Matsui isn't much of a player (.288/.342/.405 in his “career” year in 2007), he will be sorely missed. His defense was sparkling, and helped fans understand why Jose Reyes was initially moved to second base when Matsui originally signed with the Mets. And going 32-4 on stolen bases adds not only pressure to the defense, but runs to the scoreboard. A renaissance from Marcus Giles would represent an upgrade in offense, without a lot of defensive loss. But he's 3 years away from being an asset to a team. Fortunately for the Rockies, there are usually reasonably cheap 2b options available from other teams if neither Giles nor Nix works out in the first couple months. Expect about -20 runs on offense and +10 runs on defense from this position in 2008, compared to 2007.
Center Field:
Willy Taveras isn't really a .320 hitter. And, Bill James Handbook projections aside, Ryan Spillbourgs isn't likely to hit .299 again, either. Combined, the Rockies got a .301/.354/.388 batting line out of their centerfielders, though. And that doesn't seem likely to change by much... perhaps -10 points on each stat. With Taveras expected to be healthy all year, the defense could be even better overall. That makes the CF position about the same in 2008 overall.
2008 Summary:
Nobody will be picking the Rockies to finish last in 2007, even if they don't agree with the team's position on religion and character. Yet with a few bad breaks, this Rock could crumble. Expected regression from Hirsh and the bullpen, coupled with faltering steps from Jimenez and Morales and failure to find a 2b solution could lead to a fairly ugly 2008 season. More likely, the pitching will allow about 30 more runs (10 due to worse 2b defense), the offense will score 20 fewer runs, and the team will have a Pythagorean expected win total of about 86 runs and be right in the thick of a tight NL West race.
Questions and comments for this article may be submitted to Rob McQuown at . Past articles for this author can be found under “Staff Writers” at the Baseball Digest Daily site.
