After years of patchwork solutions and trying to make do with other people’s castoffs (Danny Kolb, Eric Gagne), Milwaukee finally has an established closer—though former Padre may be far from a lock to stablize their endgame.

Several sources are saying that the two sides have come to a one-year deal, probably in the $6M range, with an option for a second year. There’s no doubt that the Brewers need someone better than their current solution—did they really think that wildman Jorge Julio could recapture the effectiveness he only briefly had? But one wonders if Hoffman, a likely HOF candidate, may turn out to be just another castoff gone bad.

Hoffman’s 2008 was an improvement in most ways over 2006-2007, except for home runs, which is why his ERA ballooned to 3.77, the first time that numbers’ cracked 3.oo since 2001, and the highest it’s been since his 3.88 in 1995.

That’s as significant as ERA can be (which isn’t all that much), but it’s due to various factors, not just the home run ball. 14% of his flyballs—and Hoffman is an extreme flyball pitcher—left the yard, above both the league average of 10%, and higher than his career mark of about 5.5%.

Bad luck? Possibly, though PETCO’s about as pitcher-friendly as parks get (and 7 of the 8 dingers he gave up were at home). What’s far more telling is his other peripherals, particularly in the first half: his strand rate bottomed out at 65%, the lower end of where that number ought to be, and his HR/F ratio topped out at 17%.

That might seem to indicate that he gave up homers with guys on base, except 7 of those 8 homers were of the solo variety. Hoffman just gave up hits with guys on, and they weren’t extra base hits either; 12 of his 15 hits surrendered with men on were singles. This all points to a simple run of bad luck, all in the first half of the season. A few balls fell in for singles, and those few extra runs, scattered over only 45 IP, made all the difference.

Problem is, the other rising numbers spike seems to be just as aberrant. His DOM (K/9) hit 9.1, the highest it’s been since 2002, and well over 2007’s 6.9. And his CMD (K/BB) was 5.1, the highest it’s been since 2004, and way over his 2.9 last year, a year that had continued a steady downward trend since that same 2004 peak.

And so Hoffman’s 2008 wasn’t likely an indication that he’ll suddenly start giving up gopher balls in Milwaukee (a slight pitcher’s park, though not nearly as extreme as PETCO). But neither does it mean that this 41-year-old suddenly found new life on his strikeout pitch.

What it means is that the Brewers can look forward to a decent year from a once-dominant closer. Hoffman is a soft-tosser, meaning he’s not likely wear down the way a fireballer would. Hoffman’s been extraordinarily healthy most of his career—the shoulder surgery in 2003 was his only significant down time—which means he’s a healthy kind of guy. But 41 is 41 and he’s only got so many more innings in his arm, whether it’s throwing tossing fastballs, changeups, or Wiffle balls.

And we can’t discount his clubhouse performance. No matter how well (or how poorly) he does on the hill, he’s going to be an asset off of it, no small thing on a club that hasn’t had a veteran presence at the back end of its bullpen since Bob Wickman left in 2000. Look at how Salomon Torres responded to his fine 2008 season: he retired.

And so Milwaukee fans should moderate their expectations at both ends of the spectrum. Hoffman will be good, not great, and may not be there for too long. Given the burnouts and short-timers the Brewers have had there in recent years, however, that may be sufficient cause for jubilation in Mil Town.