|
|
Wednesday, December 20, 2006 Baseball Digest Daily 2007 Prospect List 1-50
Hello again, Prospect Lovers -
It's almost midnight, Tuesday, December 19. The College Bowl games have begun. And in baseball ... NOTHING IS HAPPENING!! Well, almost nothing. Except... (drum roll please) The Top Fifty Prospects!! Look for it on the Home page, and under Articles. And post your questions and comments here! We will all find time in our busy Holiday schedule to answer your questions. Enjoy! And Happy Holidays to all! Labels: prospects posted by Rob McQuown at 12:50 AM |
Previous Posts
|
 |
7 Comments:
Rob - have you SEEN Travis Denker play? If he's the 37th best prospect in the game, then I'm the next Babe Ruth.
Welcome to the site, Babe. :)
Honestly, no, I haven't seen him play. I don't get nearly enough opportunity to do eyes-on scouting of minor leaguers. I try to leverage the inputs of scouting reviews (including knowing the biases of the various sources) against some advanced statistical analysis. I admit a predilection for players who I think have a good chance to be good, vs. a very slim chance to be "great".
Denker has a lot of things going against him, it is true. He's not a great athlete, which I'm sure drops him out of any elite standing in the eyes of most, and his defensive reputation is that of being unable to catch a cold. I have to admit that Jeff Sackmann's new gadget to add up defensive +/- probably gained him 30 spots on my list, as he comes out about average at 2b defensively, even as he was alternating sides of the diamond with DeWitt.
Why is he so high? Despite some BA struggles this year, he still walked 89 times to 73 strikeouts as a 20-year-old splitting time between A/A+. And his outstanding 2005 didn't cease to exist just because he tailed off in 2006.
Any more controversial picks out there? I know Denker can't be the only one. Bring it, folks!
Denker is awful in the field, that's why the team has toyed with playing him in LF. He's also 5'8" and while he's still young (21), he hasn't hit a lick above Low-A. I'd rather have Tony Abreu or Blake DeWitt.
Other questionable picks:
Brignac at 14 - product of the CAL league?
Upton at 7 - obviously this was based solely on potential/tools.
Clement at 22 - why?
Braun at 26 - way too low.
Josh Fields - how does he NOT make someone's top 100?
Dave,
I'll respond from my vantage point on some of your questions...
First, I personally define a prospect as someone who has the potential to make an impact at the major league level. The better prospects have the potential to make more of an impact than the lesser prospects.
That being said, yes, Justin Upton is where he is on this list because of his potential. As I'm sure you're aware, the scouting scores he received before the 2005 draft rivaled the scores of only Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez from the last 20-25 years. That's a big time prospect.
I can't speak for my colleagues, although I believe Rob defended his position, but I did have Josh Fields rated as prospect #42.
Jeff Clement is another potential impact prospect. I realize he didn't have the offensive season everyone expected, but I feel he still has the skills to make a real contribution, especially as a catcher.
Maybe Braun fits somewhere between #15-#30, but the talent gap between each of those players is so small that I would look at him as part of that bracket. If you say he belongs way higher than 15-20, then I just disagree.
I don't think Brignac's success is a product of just playing in the California League. Sure, stats out there will be a bit inflated. But Reid didn't exactly fall apart in the Southern League. And he was hardly an unknown out of high school (2nd round pick in 2004). This is a kid who just got better. He actually grew, bulked up a bit, and starting driving the ball more. His strikeouts and errors are still problems, but he's so young that he has plenty of time to correct those faults.
First, thanks again for the comments... it keeps it lively!
re: Fields. I think Josh Fields in 2007 will be a great case study for examination of BABIP for hitters. One hit per week turns a .250 hitter into a .300 hitter (25 hits/500 ab = 50 points). Fields hit line drives on about 23% of the balls on which he made contact . From THT research, that translates to about a .350 BABIP. His real BABIP was closer to .400, and the difference represents about 16 extra hits over the course of the season. That still leaves him as a .275/.349/.473 hitter in AAA at age 23, which isn't too bad. But he also strikes out 30% of the time, and isn't exactly Joe Crede on defense.
Eric Duncan shouldn't be at 91, and I'm a big Yankee fan. Duncan has major injury issues and hasn't batted above .248 since 2004. He's got some potential, but a lot of good prospects missed out behind him (including Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances from the Yankees)
Post a Comment
<< Blog Home